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Old 11-14-2017, 09:41 PM   #201
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Looking over things, looks like I cleared 200% on some gem 10 baseball rookies from the junk wax era and a whopping 369% rate of return on a gem 10 emmitt smith rookie

The biggest miss was that I only cleared 2.6% on a gem 10 kobe bryant rookie. My estimates before the auction were that that card would have hit an easy +50%. Sucks because I'm sitting on a bunch more of these stupid Kobe cards. I thought those were a steal, but now I'm hoping I can at least get my money back on them. Maybe I should sit on them until he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame.



/tw33t tw33t
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:04 AM   #202
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Mail day again



tw33t tw33t
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:12 AM   #203
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Beanbat, I would like to pull my 401k and mail you the balance to put all my eggs in the BB card retirement fund basket.

What's your fee?
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:18 AM   #204
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What are you doing regression to explain what cards are worth messing with and just buying/selling based on the relevance factors?
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:23 AM   #205
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Beanbat, I would like to pull my 401k and mail you the balance to put all my eggs in the BB card retirement fund basket.

What's your fee?
Better off with bitcoin.
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:52 AM   #206
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What are you doing regression to explain what cards are worth messing with and just buying/selling based on the relevance factors?
I've developed a way to derive expected values based on the statistical distribution of sales across various auction houses. From this, I derive a "can't be wrong" price threshold, IE a price at which I would buy unequivocally. I've then written data scrapers that troll every single auction I can find and flag potential buys. I put in probably hundreds of bids a month, and some of them hit...probably hitting somewhere around 2-3% hit rate on these. The theory here is that there are a smaller amount of buyers, so if a seller puts their lot on a thinly viewed auction, they're basically screwed. It's happened to me. I've sold a few of these 1969 nolan ryan cards, and I got fvcked on one of them.

I've also established a relationship with one of the primary auction houses where they will list my items for free and will actually pay me a few % more than the final 'hammer price' on my lots (note that most people who want to sell have to pay a consignment fee). I won't make money on every single sale, but statistically I hope that my method is sound. I'm currently somewhere just shy of 30% rate of return since September. We shall see...I have some huge lots I'm consigning next month.

I'm also considering setting up my own auction. Then I don't have to worry about buying and selling; I can simply market the auction and make money on the 'vig', basically.
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:57 AM   #207
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Beanbat, I would like to pull my 401k and mail you the balance to put all my eggs in the BB card retirement fund basket.

What's your fee?
I would require you to buy me 1 case of garbage pail kids each month for 10 years.

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Old 12-07-2017, 11:10 AM   #208
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What are you doing regression to explain what cards are worth messing with and just buying/selling based on the relevance factors?
Oh, one other thing.

It's also not quite as simple as I laid out because the cards themselves aren't fungible. IE, if you have two PSA 8 Nolan Ryan rookie cards, they aren't necessarily equal in terms of quality and aren't necessarily worth the same amount. It depends on what defect each card had to degrade it to the '8' grade. Some of them have poor centering, some have print defects, some are corner/edge wear, etc. Typically, the poorly centered cards fare the worst in terms of price. So the output of my scraper tends to pick up a huge amount of badly centered cards that it flags as 'buys' that I then have to be careful about. This is why I don't have my tools placing bids automatically yet.

There are also interesting games with each auction house because they all have different rules. Depending on the rules and card value, if you get in early, you can game the system and 'perch' on bid values that will basically almost guarantee that you'll get the card at a good price.

Like I've told you guys, I fvcking hate sports and think they're stupid. However, what I've uncovered with respect to how this whole market works is fascinating.
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Old 12-07-2017, 11:27 AM   #209
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Cool, it's about what *other people find attractive/valuable.

Edit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keyn...beauty_contest
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Old 12-07-2017, 11:41 AM   #210
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Quite the hobby you've stumbled upon brushing up on statistics/programming while making a bunch of money That is a cool approach. Are cards graded like a serial number, as in each character denotes some characteristic about the card/quality/value/etc or is grading them more subjective? If it were numerical you could have a field day with spss and just sniff out cards based on their serial number relevance

I hate sports too and know nothing about cards/grading, def cool stuff tho
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Old 12-07-2017, 11:57 AM   #211
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Quite the hobby you've stumbled upon brushing up on statistics/programming while making a bunch of money That is a cool approach. Are cards graded like a serial number, as in each character denotes some characteristic about the card/quality/value/etc or is grading them more subjective? If it were numerical you could have a field day with spss and just sniff out cards based on their serial number relevance

I hate sports too and know nothing about cards/grading, def cool stuff tho
The serial #s of the graded cards are simply sequential. There's no correlation between serial # and grade. It's also quite subjective. On some of the baseball card boards, people will get a grade they don't like, break the card out, and resubmit. Some guys do this 5-6 times until they get the grade they want. Basically, if you catch the grader on a bad day, you're going to have a bad time.

Have you used JMP? I've never used SPSS, but am curious how the two tools compare.
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Old 12-07-2017, 12:01 PM   #212
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The serial #s of the graded cards are simply sequential. There's no correlation between serial # and grade. It's also quite subjective. On some of the baseball card boards, people will get a grade they don't like, break the card out, and resubmit. Some guys do this 5-6 times until they get the grade they want. Basically, if you catch the grader on a bad day, you're going to have a bad time.
Ah shyt, that'd have been too easy
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Old 12-07-2017, 01:37 PM   #213
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are you only doing this with baseball cards specifically or other cards too?

I know some of those card games like magic the gathering have wild swings in card value.. Saw some youtube video a while back where people were selling cards for tens of thousands
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Old 12-07-2017, 02:39 PM   #214
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are you only doing this with baseball cards specifically or other cards too?

I know some of those card games like magic the gathering have wild swings in card value.. Saw some youtube video a while back where people were selling cards for tens of thousands
I'm focused on vintage cards. Baseball, football, basketball. I am also dabbling in garbage pail kids. About those nerdy magic or other type cards, take a look at these first gen pokemon cards:

https://goldinauctions.com/1999_Poke...-LOT38237.aspx

$43k and auction isn't over. Even if no one else bids, these cards will go for $50k after the buyer premium.
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Old 12-10-2017, 01:51 PM   #215
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take a look at these first gen pokemon cards:

https://goldinauctions.com/1999_Poke...-LOT38237.aspx

$43k and auction isn't over. Even if no one else bids, these cards will go for $50k after the buyer premium.



$100,655.00 for pokemon cards?
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Old 12-10-2017, 07:42 PM   #216
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$100,655.00 for pokemon cards?
I think it has to be some millennial bitcoin millionaire.
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Old 12-11-2017, 07:00 AM   #217
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I'm focused on vintage cards. Baseball, football, basketball. I am also dabbling in garbage pail kids. About those nerdy magic or other type cards, take a look at these first gen pokemon cards:

https://goldinauctions.com/1999_Poke...-LOT38237.aspx

$43k and auction isn't over. Even if no one else bids, these cards will go for $50k after the buyer premium.

Yea thats the kinda nonsense I was talking about.. I mean look at this sh!t

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Mag...wAAOSwEFZZgIOc
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Old 12-11-2017, 07:32 AM   #218
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I think it has to be some millennial bitcoin millionaire.
More than likely. It's probably the one who co-founded Ethereum.
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Old 12-11-2017, 07:38 AM   #219
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Yea thats the kinda nonsense I was talking about.. I mean look at this sh!t

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Mag...wAAOSwEFZZgIOc
Ib4 Jacob4546 scams someone out of that at a yard sale for .50, cashes in, then sends a bunch of nerds to their house asking about the back story.
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Old 12-11-2017, 08:09 AM   #220
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Ib4 Jacob4546 scams someone out of that at a yard sale for .50, cashes in, then sends a bunch of nerds to their house asking about the back story.
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Old 12-11-2017, 11:13 AM   #221
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Ib4 Jacob4546 scams someone out of that at a yard sale for .50, cashes in, then sends a bunch of nerds to their house asking about the back story.
LMAO, that guy is such a piece of shiit.
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Old 12-11-2017, 05:52 PM   #222
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LMAO, that guy is such a piece of shiit.
Pretty despicable.
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Old 12-17-2017, 07:44 PM   #223
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Forgot to post up one of the last mail days.



Damn, how many nolan ryan RCs is this muthafukka gonna buy?! SHEEEEEEIT.

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Old 12-17-2017, 09:44 PM   #224
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*tweet*tweet* Nobody cares about your bitchass hobby.
Can you count to 6? Cuz that's how many pages this thread has. How many did your "pedocar" thread have? What about your stupid Xmas YouTube thread? Lol, forget about 6 pages. Those fvcking things barely had 6 views
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Old 01-07-2018, 02:33 PM   #225
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Just a note for the BB haters (AKA broke d1ck losers):

Last month, these stupid baseball cards made me enough profit to pay my mortgage.

#winning

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Old 01-07-2018, 03:06 PM   #226
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Jokes on you. Only brokedicks have a mortgage
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Old 01-07-2018, 03:16 PM   #227
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Jokes on you. Only brokedicks have a mortgage
I thought you knew about money management. Go look up opportunity cost and then come back to this thread
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Old 01-07-2018, 03:19 PM   #228
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I thought you knew about money management. Go look up opportunity cost and then come back to this thread
Kidding, brah... Cheap money > *
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Old 01-07-2018, 03:33 PM   #229
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Kidding, brah... Cheap money > *
Expensive money > cheap money





















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Old 01-07-2018, 11:00 PM   #230
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Expensive money > cheap money





















smart $ > dumb $
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Old 01-08-2018, 04:52 AM   #231
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